快遞、大宗供應鏈、跨境物流、航空等2024年策略報告（附報告下載）

航空：供給側趨緊帶來航空抬升β。國內航班量恢復超越 2019 年同期，國際和地區航線進入逐步修復階段。受飛機制造商供應鏈影響，供給側增速放緩。展望未來，需求側出入境旅遊將抬升國際航線出行熱情，供給側 23 冬春航季將帶來新的國際線增長點，預計國際和地區航線恢復至 2019 年的 80%，供需復蘇抬升航空周期。 

機場：底部反轉，未來可期。2023 年隨著機場客流量復蘇態勢良好，機場經營情況實現扭虧為盈，深圳機場業務量恢復最快。我們看好機場當前的底部反轉機會，由於機場在區域內具有天然的區域壟斷優勢，並且隨著機場改擴建將會帶來機場容量的擴張與業績的增長，對標海外機場，差異化發展途徑將推動機場發展升級。 

快遞：“新賽道”湧現，降本增效在路上。上遊商流總額增加，新業態接力拉動業務量增長。隨著物流成本的下降，各傢快遞公司的降本增效效果開始顯現。快遞公司資本開支呈現下降趨勢，隨著未來固定資產增長的趨緩，成本當中固定部分的折舊占比逐漸降低，增強快遞公司盈利端的修復彈性。 

大宗供應鏈：國際化數智化發展，靜待下遊需求復蘇。出口數據逐漸轉暖，預計大宗商品需求量將會隨著經濟回暖逐步攀升，市占率的穩步提升將會為頭部企業帶來更多的收入，同時，佈局海外市場，服務類別優化提升毛利率、數智化降本增效將會增厚企業的盈利端。 

跨境物流：雲銷雨霽，“競”顯欣欣向榮。作為跨境物流的上遊，大型跨境電商平臺具備優質穩定的貨源基礎。依托於政策支撐與行業上遊發展，跨境物流未來增長可期。 

高速公路：流量復蘇，業務多元化，高股息築牢收益護城河。貨物運輸需求穩中有升，高價值、小批量、時效強的需求快速攀升；且高速公路企業積極拓展多業態抬升企業價值。此外，高速公路的高股息率屬性在震蕩的市場中體現較高的配置價值。

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